When we wake up (go to bed?) a week from now a new crop of Oscar winners will have been crowned. There will be more water cooler discussion about who got robbed, who wore what, and who didn't show up. There will likely be commentary about that one song number that just wasn't right and that speech that went too long (or was cut unjustly short). There will be "I knew its!" and "Who would've knowns?" And some people will be smiling over there Oscar pool winnings. I never bet on the Oscars - I only offer preferences. This has been hard this year as I have not seen many of the films. But I offer the following nonetheless:Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Hayley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
I like this category for its pure diversity this year. A wide range of performance are represented and that is what makes races interesting. If you were to bet on trends then Eddie Murphy would be the only horse here. Arkin was a scene-stealer in Sunshine but only makes it halfway through the film (still, actors have won for less - Dame Judi!). It would be interesting to see either Hounsou or Wahlberg get this award for playing outright frustration. I haven't seen Little Children yet (it only played a week in HFX and I skipped my planned viewing to hang out with a boy, I should have known better!)
Momentum Winner: Eddie Murphy
My Sentimental Preference: Djimon Hounsou
Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Another motley crew of nominees that will likely make voting hell for the Academy members. That being said it depends on how the mind of the average voter works. If they go by trend it will be Hudson. A preference for a proven past will pick Blanchett. Those wanting to make a statement will chose Babel and likely split the vote between Kikuchi and Barraza. Or they will go with the film they have actually seen and reward the adorable Breslin. I haven't seen Dreamgirls or Notes on a Scandal but from the previews alone it appears to me that the decision should be between these two ladies but ingenues often trump past winners so this award is likely a lock for Hudson (take that Simon, Beyonce and all you thin girls!)
Momentum Winner: Jennifer Hudson
My Sentimental Preference: Cate Blanchett
Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
The first thing that should hit you about this list is the strong presence of the NEXT generation. Although DiCaprio has been here before (deservedly so), the addition of Gosling (one of the most powerful young actors today) and Smith lets us know that all is not lost in the future of film. Whitaker has been racking up the accolades for his role but actors cloder to death's door can sometimes come in and steal the prize in the end. However, O'Toole's previous Honorary Oscar prize may push the door open for another to win this year.
Momentum Winner: Forest Whitaker
My Sentimental Preference: Leonardo DiCaprio
Lead Actress
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children
Historically, this category has suffered from a lack of options. Every year there seems to be a void in the area of strong female roles. This year is slightly more promising and yet, still sort of odd. Cruz is the "not like the others" entry this year but I cannot comment on her deservedness because I have never seen her in a film of her native language. I am sure she is much better in that context. Streep is the most decorated actress of the lot but why she has received an nod for such a horrible film and weak character I'll never understand. Dench and Mirren (recently showcased together in "Vanity Fair"s Hollywood issue) are a decent fight. Winslet enters the race again and proves she deserves to be in this company having 4 other previous nominations (one less than Dench and two more than Mirren). She will also show up in one of the best dresses! But the Academy loves a strong real-life portrayal (see: Nicole Kidman in The Hours or Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote) so the Queen is going to get her crown.
Momentum Winner: Helen Mirren
My Sentimental Preference: Kate Winslet
Adapted Screenplay
Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Original Screenplay
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labrynth
The Queen
The screenplay races are interesting because it is often the place where smaller films get noticed and strong films without the acting or directing chops get rewarded. It is not surprise that Borat is found here. Still, screenplays are vital to the characterization and story arcs in film and contribute to the overall experience. This fact makes these two catagories highly political as voters try to spread out the recognition while still taking a position on what is "best". So will this year have the screenplay awards matching the top film selections or will it veer to the other side to reward those other solid films. And with four of the best film nominees all in the original category how will voters how much the story weighs into the film itself?
Momentum Winner Adapted: The Departed
My Sentimental Preference: The Departed
Momentum Winner Original: Babel
My Sentimental Preference: The Queen
Best Film
Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
A little review on the best picture nominees. I was lucky enough to actually see 4 of the 5 nominated films.
Letters from Iwo Jima only played for a week and I never found the time to watch 2.5 hours of Japanese at the time. Still, the film has gotten wonderful reviews but since it is also nominated in the Foreign Film category I think its win is more likely there.
Babel is this year's Crash and everyone knows it. It boasts a strong ensemble and some great performances. It is also abstract, sometimes strange and often slow. Its love it or hate it experience and non-American-centric position takes it out of the running for the top film this year.
The Departed was one of my favourite films this year and even though is a somewhat bloated endeavour it succeeds in both direction, performance, story and visuals. And it is that combination that wins big awards (unless Scorcese has made it).
The Queen is a small film by comparison to the above three. At times it feels like a TV movie and may have been better served as such rather than a big screen offering. Still, the performances are top notch and the quiet battle of past and present is solidly portrayed.
Little Miss Sunshine is the entry I cannot understand. An indie version of National Lampoon's Vacation is not an Academy Award winning film. Still it is fun, interesting and full of fantastic acting and maybe that's enough.
Momentum Winner: Babel
My Sentimental Preference: The Departed
... 2005 ... 2006 ...
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