If I Were a Member of the Academy

It is only 4 days until the red carpet unfurled at the Kodak theatre and the stars arrive to pick up their little gold men. I have to say that this year's event is likely to be less-thrilling than other years. The potential and likelihood for an upset is low. The "winners" appear to be foregone conclusions. All of them are worthy choices. But some of them just wouldn't be mine.

Supporting Actor:
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence

The hard part here is that I haven't seen two of the films (Cinderella & Violence). I think the Academy is going to be split over Giamatti - who was snubbed for a Sideways nomination last year and Clooney - who they will want to reward in some fashion since it can't be for director or film! For myself, I'd like to see the new generation represent and get some gold-laminate in Gyllenhaal's hands. I've always been a believer that the supporting award must go to someone that "supports" the film and lead performers to the extent that the film would not be same without that portrayal. Jake is the only one who truly fits the bill from this list of nominees (but I liked him better in Proof to be honest).
Likely Winner? Clooney
Raye's Choice? Gyllenhaal

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

Again - two performances on this list that I haven't had the pleasure to see (June & North) but neither of them are really in the running this year. The downside of this category is the inclusion of Weisz. In a "political" move to keep her out of the leading lady pack where the competition is tougher she has been slotted into this secondary group. The good thing? She's going to get an Oscar out of it and complete the awards season trifecta (Globe, SAG, Oscar). The bad thing? She shouldn't be running in this race at all - she had a leading role and is going to steal the award from a woman who truly gave an incredible supporting performance this year - Michelle Williams.
Likely Winner? Weisz
Raye's Choice? Williams

Lead Actor:
Philip Seymore Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck

If you had asked me in November I would have said this was Phoenix's award to lose. It appears now that it is Hoffman's to keep. It's always a tough year when the category is full of great performances and you everyone is deserving without any politics coming into play. It's also nice to see such a strong showing of younger actors coming into their own. That reality may sway people to want to support Strathairn - the lion of the group - but this won't be the case. For me, the best work is done by the one guy NOT playing a character based on a person in the real world - Heath Ledger. The challenge of "becoming" a (once) living person maintaining the character's reality but I've always been more impressed with actors who can conjure complete characters from nothing but words on a page.
Likely Winner? Hoffman
Raye's Choice? Ledger

Lead Actress:
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride & Predjudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

The obvious oddity in this group is Knightley - I can only conclude that the actresses who nominated her were so shocked by the potential that Keira could act that they felt compelled to say something. But act to an Oscar degree in P&P? I don't think so. And aside for Walk the Line, the remaining films are small, critical faves that certainly gave their leading ladies material to devour. But this is no real contest. It's Reese's show - consider she never sang or played an instrument before taking the role? - and deservedly so.
Likely Winner? Witherspoon
Raye's Choice? Witherspoon

Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

Original Screenplay:
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and The Whale
Syriana

I love the screenplay awards. They are the starting point of all great films because they build the story foundation on which all the visuals are built. This year the field in both categories is strong and I've seen all the films but two (I can't believe the DVD release for Violence was delayed!!!). Truth be told, I have NO idea where the Academy is going to come down on these awards. Often, the screenplay awards go to strong films in other areas (acting, directing) which would favour Match Point and Syriana. Or, the award goes to the films that are the broadly competent like Brokeback. Then again, the award can go to the film that poses the "tough" questions (Crash) or delivers wonderful dialogue (Capote). It appears that the Academy writers know WHAT to nominate. The question will be whether or not the voters can agree on what to reward.
Likely Winner? Brokeback Mountain & Crash
Raye's Choice? Capote & Syriana

Best Film:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

The best film race is a lack-lustre one for me this year. But it is likely one that the Academy enjoys. All the contenders are strong films. All the films have solid contributions from actors and/or feature the talents of acclaimed directors. But for me? The field feels empty. None of the nominees are films that made a substantial mark on me. Not like Million Dollar Baby or The Aviator did last year. Still, one film stands out as offering the best collection of goods in one basket and I will be surprised if the Academy doesn't agree with me.
Likely Winner? Brokeback Mountain
Raye's Choice? Brokeback Mountain

The Academy Awards will air on CTV (support your Canadian TV stations!) on Sunday, March 3. I will be at my best friend's place watching them. And not matter who wins, I reckon it will be a good time cause Jon Stewart is hosting!!!